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Israel Can Live With A Nuclear Iran
From the Panel
For: James Dobbins
- How to Defuse Iran’s Nuclear Threat
James Dobbins, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Alireza Nader and Frederic Wehrey, RAND, Spring 2012An Israeli or American attack on Iranian nuclear facilities would make it more, not less, likely that the Iranian regime would decide to produce and deploy nuclear weapons. Such an attack would also make it more, not less, difficult to contain Iranian influence.
- Gate Crashing the Opposition
James Dobbins and Alireza Nader, Foreign Affairs, August 22, 2012The best -- and, at this point, almost the only -- concrete thing Washington can do to advance democracy in Iran is to support those transitions already underway in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and, particularly, Syria.
- Iran’s Self-Destructive Gamble
Alireza Nader and James Dobbins, New York Times, January 5, 2012The Iranian regime needs to be persuaded that it will become more isolated, more penalized and more vulnerable to internal unrest if it chooses to test and deploy nuclear weapons. Unilateral U.S. or Israeli action cannot produce this effect.
- Coping With a Nuclearizing Iran
James Dobbins, Alireza Nader, Dalia Dassa Kaye and Frederic Wehrey, RAND, 2011This monograph attempts to fill that gap by providing a midterm strategy for dealing with Iran that neither begins nor ends at the point at which Tehran acquires a nuclear weapon capability.
- Iran Sanctions: Options, Opportunities and Consequences
James Dobbins, RAND, December 15, 2009Testimony presented before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs.
- Negotiating With Iran
James Dobbins, RAND, November 7, 2007Testimony presented before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs.
For: REUVEN PEDATZUR
- Fear Is Not a Deterrent, Bibi
Reuven Pedatzur, Haaretz, August 21, 2012In his comments these days, Netanyahu is undermining the chance of crafting a credible deterrent policy against a future nuclear Iran.
- The Futility of Attacking Iran
Reuven Pedatzur, Haaretz, February 9, 2012Some of the nuclear facilities in Iran, especially those that are critical for the continuation of its nuclear program activities, are located deep below the surface and protected by reinforced concrete fortifications. This makes the task of destroying them almost completely impossible.
- Nuclear Recalcitrance
Reuven Pedatzur, Haaretz, September 30, 2012In Jerusalem, as always, any mention of Israeli nuclear weapons produces a Pavlovian response. No, no, no - there's nothing to talk about and nobody to talk to.
- Iran Is Too Rational to Attack Israel
Reuven Pedatzur, Haaretz, December 20, 2011Israel's policy makers now face a complicated dilemma regarding Iran's nuclear program: Should they work on the assumption that mutual deterrence of the Cold War variety is applicable to the Iranian situation?
- Five Questions, Five Answers: Israel and the Iranian Nuclear Program
5 Questions to Reuven Pedatzur, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, November 21, 2011In light of a 2011 report from the IAEA, Pedatzur was asked for his assessment of the current situation.
- IAF Chief Must Save Israel From Futile Attack on Iran
Reuven Pedatzur, Haaretz, November 2, 2011The IAF can bomb Iran, he must tell the government, but ultimately the operation will not destroy the Iranian nuclear program, at best it can delay it.
- The Iranian Nuclear Threat and the Israeli Options
Reuven Pedatzur, Contemporary Security Policy, Vol. 28, No. 3, December 2007The key to strategic stability in a nuclear Middle East lies in the realization and acceptance by decision makers in Jerusalem and Tehran that there is no point to using nuclear weapons—if both sides have it.
- Let Them Have Nukes
Reuven Pedatzur, Haaretz, September 7, 2006Mutual deterrence will be based on new rules of the game, with Israel making its red lines clear to Iran. For example, Iran will be made aware that the moment a missile is detected heading westward from its territory, the Israeli nuclear response will be automatically activated - without waiting for the missile to land, and without examining whether it is nuclear.
Against: JEFFREY GOLDBERG
- So, Israel Nearly Attacked Iran in 2010; Who’d a Thunk It?
Jeffrey Goldberg, Atlantic, November 5, 2012What is not a bluff -- and what, apparently, was never a bluff -- was Netanyahu's determination to launch a strike.
- Just How Committed Is Obama to Stopping Iran?
Jeffrey Goldberg, Atlantic, October 29, 2012An exchange with Yossi Klein Halevi on Obama’s Iran policy.
- Obama’s Crystal-Clear Promise to Stop Iran From Getting a Nuclear Weapon
Jeffrey Goldberg, Atlantic, October 2, 2012Obama will do whatever it takes to prevent Iran from producing an atomic bomb.
- 7 Reasons Why Israel Should Not Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities
Jeffrey Goldberg, Atlantic, August 11, 2012Israeli officials may see a "zero hour" for attacking Iranian nuclear facilities, but it could backfire.
- Ex-Mossad Chief: Israeli Attack Would Help Iran Go Nuclear
Jeffrey Goldberg, Atlantic, June 13, 2012Meir Dagan says Bibi and Barak are serious about attacking the Islamic Republic.
- How Iran Could Trigger Accidental Armageddon
Jeffrey Goldberg, Bloomberg View, January 23, 2012The experts who study this depressing issue seem to agree that a Middle East in which Iran has four or five nuclear weapons would be dangerously unstable and prone to warp-speed escalation.
- Why Obama Might Save Israel From Nuclear Iran
Jeffrey Goldberg, Bloomberg View, November 7, 2011Based on interviews inside and outside the White House, that Obama would consider using force -- missile strikes, mainly -- to stop the Iranians from crossing the nuclear threshold.
- The Point of No Return
Jeffrey Goldberg, Atlantic, September 2010A look at the strategic calculations on both sides—and at how, if things remain on the current course, an Israeli air strike will unfold.
Against: SHMUEL BAR
- Can Cold War Deterrence Apply to a Nuclear Iran?
Shmuel Bar, Strategic Perspectives, Number 7, 2011The inherent instability of the region and its regimes, the difficulty in managing multilateral nuclear tensions, the weight of religious, emotional, and internal pressures, and the proclivity of many of the regimes in the region toward military adventurism and brinkmanship do not bode well for the future of this region once it enters the nuclear age.
- Culture of Command & Control of Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East—Jihadi-Salafi Regime
Shmuel Bar, Institute for Policy and Strategy, August 2010What is the Islamist perspective today on the legality of possession and/or use of nuclear weapons?
- Iranian Defense Doctrine and Decision Making
Shmuel Bar, Institute for Policy and Strategy, 2004The achievement of a nuclear capability is perceived in Iran as both a strategic exigency and a well-deserved membership card in a select club to which Iran ought to belong.
- Gods, Nations and Deterrence: The Impact of Religion on Deterrence
Shmuel Bar, Comparative Strategy, 2011Religion may affect susceptibility to deterrence both directly and indirectly.
ARTICLES FOR & AGAINST
- We Can Live With a Nuclear Iran
Paul Pillar, Washington Monthly, March/April 2012Fears of a bomb in Tehran’s hands are overhyped, and a war to prevent it would be a disaster.
- Living With a Nuclear Iran
Robert Kaplan, Atlantic, September 2010Iran can be contained. The path to follow? A course laid out half a century ago by a young Henry Kissinger, who argued that American chances of checking revolutionary powers such as the Soviet Union depended on our credible willingness to engage them in limited war.
- Why Iran Should Get the Bomb
Kenneth N. Waltz, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2012Nuclear balancing would mean stability.
- Nuclear Mullahs
Bill Keller, New York Times, September 9, 2012Negotiate a deal that lets Iran enrich uranium for civilian use (as it is entitled to do under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty), that applies rigorous safeguards (because Iran cheats), that gradually relaxes sanctions and brings this wayward country into the community of more-or-less civilized nations.
- Time to Attack Iran
Matthew Kroenig, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2012Why a strike is the least bad option.
- Why Obama Should Take Out Iran’s Nuclear Program
Eric Edelman, Andre Krepinevich Jr. and Evan Montgomery, Foreign Affairs, November 9, 2011Iran is closer to having nuclear weapons than was widely assumed, and once it goes nuclear, it will be impossible to stop. To prevent it, the Obama administration must use military force—soon.
- Israel and Iran: The Grounds for an Israeli Attack
Elliot Abrams, World Affairs, May/June 2012The dangers Israel faces from an Iranian nuclear weapon are unique and, I will argue, are dangers no nation should be asked to accept.
- The Case for Bombing Iran
Norman Podhoretz, Commentary, June 2007Ahmadinejad’s ambitions are not confined to the destruction of Israel.
- Iran and the Bomb
Colin H. Kahl and Kenneth N. Waltz, Foreign Affairs, September/October 2012Would a nuclear Iran make the Middle East more secure?
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