
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
Over the summer of 2012, despite increased international pressure and economic sanctions, Iran doubled the number of nuclear centrifuges installed in its underground Fordow site, stopping just short of the capacity to produce nuclear fuel. President Obama has rejected Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s call to draw a “red line” that would trigger U.S. military action. But what would the costs and benefits of military action be? Can Israel live with a nuclear Iran, or could the time be near for a pre-emptive strike?

Director, RAND International Security & Defense Policy Center

Israeli Military Affairs Analyst, Ha’aretz

Director of Studies, Israel’s Institute of Policy and Strategy & Fmr. Intelligence Officer

National Correspondent, The Atlantic

Author & Correspondent for ABC News
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Director, RAND International Security & Defense Policy Center
Ambassador James Dobbins is the director of the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center. Dobbins has held State Department and White House posts including Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, Special Assistant to the President, Special Adviser to the President and Secretary of State for the Balkans, and Ambassador to the European Community. Dobbins has had numerous crisis management and diplomatic troubleshooting assignments as the Clinton and G.W. Bush administrations' special envoy for Afghanistan, Kosovo, Bosnia, Haiti, and Somalia. In the wake of September 11, 2001, he was named as the Bush administration's representative to the Afghan opposition with the task of putting together and installing a broadly based successor to the Taliban regime. He represented the United States at the Bonn Conference that established the new Afghan government, and, on December 16, 2001, he raised the flag over the newly reopened U.S. Embassy.
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Israeli Military Affairs Analyst, Ha’aretz
Reuven Pedatzur is a senior military affairs analyst with Ha’aretz newspaper and Senior Lecturer in Political Science at Tel Aviv University. He currently serves as Director of the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue, Netanya Academic College. He was previously an IAF fighter pilot, Academic Director of the Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue at Netanya Academic College, and a Visiting Scholar at the Center for Strategic Studies at MIT. He is one of Israel’s leading commentators on missile defense, nuclear and other non-conventional weapons, the Israeli Defense Force’s strategic doctrine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. His most recent book is The Rescue of King Hussein's Regime (2008). Pedatzur is a regular analyst for Israeli TV and hosts a radio show on security and strategic issues.
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Director of Studies, Israel’s Institute of Policy and Strategy & Fmr. Intelligence Officer
Shmuel Bar is the Director of Studies at the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel. He is also a Senior Research Fellow at the International Institute for Non-Proliferation Studies and Adjunct Fellow at the Hudson Institution. In 2007, he was the Koret Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. Bar is also the founder and CEO of IntuView Ltd – an Israel-based software company. Bar served for thirty years in the Israeli government, first in the Israeli Defense Forces Intelligence, and later in analytic and operational positions in the Israeli Office of the Prime Minister.
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National Correspondent, The Atlantic
Jeffrey Goldberg is a national correspondent for The Atlantic and a columnist for Bloomberg View. He is a recipient of the National Magazine Award for Reporting for his coverage of Islamic terrorism. Before joining The Atlantic in 2007, Goldberg was a Middle East correspondent, and the Washington correspondent, for The New Yorker. Previously, he served as a correspondent for The New York Times Magazine and New York Magazine. He has also written for the Jewish Daily Forward, and was a columnist for The Jerusalem Post. In 2006, Goldberg wrote Prisoners: A Story of Friendship and Terror. In 2001, Goldberg was appointed the Syrkin Fellow in Letters of the Jerusalem Foundation, and in 2002 he became a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C.
52% voted the same way in BOTH pre- and post-debate votes (16% voted FOR twice, 30% voted AGAINST twice, 6% voted UNDECIDED twice). 48% changed their mind (8% voted FOR then changed to AGAINST, 1% voted FOR then changed to UNDECIDED, 4% voted AGAINST then changed to FOR, 1% voted AGAINST then changed to UNDECIDED, 17% voted UNDECIDED then changed to FOR, 17% voted UNDECIDED then changed to AGAINST) | Breakdown Graphic


3 out of the 4 "debators" are Jewish -- why is their no Persian/Iranian commentators considering this is a question regarding Iran ? Nice debate.
Iran hasn't attacked or invaded another nation in over 500 years. People complained they are responsible for Hezbollah and Hamas -- but this is wrong; ISRAEL's POLICIES are the reason why Hezbollah and Hamas exist. Hezbollah was created ONLY after Israel illegally invaded and illegally occupied Southern Lebanon. Iran had NOTHING to do with Hezbollah's creation. They give them money and support, but so what ? This isn't a crime. America gives all of Iran's enemies money and support (Israel, Iraq during the Iraq-Iran war and Saudi Arabia). Hamas was created in the same effect, Israel's illegal occupation of the Palestinian territories (as defined by International Law and the UN).
Israel is responsible for their own actions.
There is also no proof Iran is working to create a nuclear bomb. Absolutely none.
I listened the debate tonight on NPR. I was shocked at the
argument made by Jeffrey Goldberg. Does Mr. Goldberg
really believe that Israel will survive for only a few years
after Iran becomes a declared nuclear state? This is an
utterly hysterical argument. It is premised on the idea
that the Iranian clerics would find the nuclear martyrdom
of Iran to be an acceptable outcome of a nuclear confrontation
with Israel. I know the Iranians are messianic but the potential
incineration of the homeland strikes me as just a bit bizarre.
Is anyone else noticing how closely the global nuclear capability argument mirrors the domestic gun ownership debate seen in America today? The sociological precept is the same – they have their guns, so I need mine!
Despite all of our wonderful attributes, human beings have shown - for 10’s of thousands of years - that they have a propensity for violence towards one-another. Three hundred and fifty years ago Thomas Hobbes wrote a seminal critique of political theory in Leviathan – where he argued that human beings are, by nature, ruled by pride and by fear. You see evidence of this every single day in the inter-action amongst people world-wide. This may be a misanthropic view of humanity, but we have no need to fear it, or be shameful of it, because as soon as we admit that this is a part of our nature we can work together as the loving, intelligent beings whom we are and subdue this common enemy! Reason & understanding will take us further then military power or diplomatic efficacy ever will.
More weapons will lead to more violence and more death – period.
There should be a balance of power especially when forced to make a stand against aggressors/bullies such as Israel and America; without nuclear power anyone of the two can either start bombing your country and/or invade for their benefit. It's either they agree to play/fight fair allowing Iran nuclear power or, agree to a total disarmament worldwide.
I have never heard of Israeli suicide bombers willing to sacrifice their lives for the will of their God...
Put a nuclear weapon in the hands of a state that sanctions this primal sacrifice, and...
The side arguing against the motion relied heavily on playing on everybody's fear by feeding everybody rhetoric by Iranian officials as testaments to their resolve. If Iran was truly and utterly bent on destroying Israel, then why don't they mount a full military strike against Israel, instead of relying on loose terrorist organizations flinging home-made bombs across the border? The exaggeration is astounding. The point made by the side for the motion is completely valid. The U.S. faced against powerful superpowers such as Russia with great nuclear capabilities and the threat went beyond mere words on both sides and yet there was no eminent war.
The best we can hope for is a Middle East free of nuclear weapons. Iran is currently surrounded by nuclear powers (Israel, Pakistan, Russia) and US nuclear weapons on submarines. It may be that if Iran does obtain nuclear weapons, that will trigger the nuclear disarmament in the region that is so badly needed. It does not look like it will happen without such a change in the balance of nuclear / military power.
I'd also like to point out that the win for the side against the motion was possibly contrived; that is, some of the audience (folks from my tribe!) may have voted 'undecided' at the outset with incomplete sincerity. It's my impression that the side for the motion actually carried more audience approval.
Also, in my second bullet below, I should have said the negative (against the motion) side!
It has always seemed very strange that we have no problem if Israel, with a very trigger-happy government, keeps a large, undeclared nuclear arsenal, refuses to sign any non-proliferation pacts & doesn't belong to the IAEA; but go ballistic when any other sovereign nation in the region wants to equalize the balance of power. Could the unusual largess of the IAPAC with our politicians on both sides of the aisle have anything to do with it?
I would have liked to hear more about these:
- what's really known about the internal workings of the Iranian regime? Is it at core a one- or two- or three-man junta? Or is it more like 20 or 100 families? What is the degree of foreign education of people at high level, esp. rising leaders?
- the affirmative side relied a lot on (ghastly) statements by the regime, and somewhat on ghastly behaviors by the regime: war with Iraq, horrific treatment of dissidents and violators of religious purity, support for Hezbollah and Hamas. Fair enough. But what about borderline irrational behaviours by the regime?
- are there solid projections about resources in the region -- oil supply, perhaps minerals, water, etc. including in regard to anticipated changes in climate -- which might alter the probability that Iran becomes desperate and more likely to act recklessly?
- If today's (secular) power elites in Israel had reason to think that Israel herself (based on demographics and cultural shifts) might turn more rabbinical (theocratic), does that impact thinking about the timing of possibly dealing with Iran?
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